What to expect for 2025? My take on the year ahead

In my annual forward look at the end of 2023, I pitched that 2024 would be the year that cycles normalised, and that businesses would curb spending and investment to buttress their bottom lines, buying enough time for consumer wait-and-see to galvanise into spending in Q3. Thankfully it seems the market in general did turn for the better in the late summer and we can go into next year with a greater degree of optimism. So, what to expect from 2025?

Sustainability and connectivity trends will continue to dominate product development and industry debate, however consumer (and industry) fatigue on the issues, particularly around sustainability will necessitate a new, considered approach that critically champions specific projects and initiatives making a difference; the debate will continue its shift from propulsion to boat production and Life Cycle Assessment.

Importantly the industry must connect sustainability with value – beyond the early-adopters, it remains a nice to have but does not warrant the price premium. How we message that value will be a key topic for discussion in 2025 – but be warned – consumer habits are notoriously difficult to change. It is overly optimistic to expect consumers to pay more for less functionality/versatility.

Value, and how it translates across the entire boat eco-system, will be the overarching narrative. From a new drive to increase affordability at the entry, volume end of the market, to the tech and design extras that truly enrich the boater experience at the luxury end – enhancing the user experience will be central.

We can expect further consolidation too in the new ‘electric’ space. The market is increasingly fragmented with lots of players and boats that are relatively expensive selling in small volumes. The leaders in the pack are pivoting to commercial markets with some success. Others will be swallowed up or will inevitably fall by the wayside in 2025, a natural part of any new sector’s evolutionary cycle.

The economic and political mood in Europe is far from upbeat, but as our report earlier this week indicated, the consensus among banks and analysts in multiple key boat sector markets worldwide is that 2025 should bring an improved business environment as inflation and interest rates return to target levels. The key date that will set the course for our industry’s prospects in 2025 will be January 20 when Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. If the rhetoric is anything to go by, we can expect a swathe of tariffs that could plunge Europe, China, Canada and the US into a tit-for-tat trade war, that will likely be a drag on growth. It is worth remembering however that we have been here before, with Trump embarking on a similar tack two years into his first presidency in 2019. The impact then was to hasten the shortening of supply chains and the reshoring of manufacturing capabilities, while pushing up prices for consumers, but the fact remains 2019 was a solid year for the boating industry – global revenues grew a modest 2% (ICOMIA Recreational Boating Statistics 2019) off the back of a strong 2018 and laid the groundwork for the covid boom. This latest round of proposed tariffs will create headwinds but foundations for a 2025 turnaround remain solid.